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Home > Vascular Annual Meeting > RR8. Predicted Shortage of Vascular Surgeons...

RR8. Predicted Shortage of Vascular Surgeons in the United States: Population and Workload Analysis

Bhagwan Satiani, Thomas E. Williams, Michael R. Go
The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the size of the future workforce in Vascular Surgery (VS) and the added cost associated with addressing the projected shortage in the United States.

METHODS: The net supply (number of VS currently practicing, new graduates entering the workforce and those retiring) for each decade was calculated. The projected population for each decade was determined by U.S. Census Bureau figures. Some of the assumptions included: 1)In 2008 the population was 300,000,000; 2)There were 2783 board certified VS in 2008; 3)VS will practice 30 years from board certification to retirement; 4)There will be 105 board certifications and 93 retirements a year;5)Vascular operations will remain at 284 per 100,000 population and 6)Salaries of trainees will be $50,000 with benefits of 30%, and $ 15,000 of additional DME costs.

RESULTS:

Table 1. Population Analysis
 

Table 2. Workload Analysis

CONCLUSIONS: A conservative estimate by both population and workload analysis, disregarding ageing of the population, lifestyle choices of future VS and increasing demand for services, indicates a shortage of VS in the future. The cost of training enough VS surgeons by 2030 will be between $1,166,400,000 and $2,182,320,000.Unless the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 is revised by Congress, the cost to train the additional VS remains a significant barrier.

AUTHOR DISCLOSURES: B. Satiani, President of Savvy Medicine; T.E. Williams, None; M.R. Go, None.